4: Future Scenario (further research)

As our due date looms closer, I thought I should probably back-up my group's proposed future proposal with cold hard facts...which lead to (honest!) credible predictions.

Rising unemployment rate

• Job advertisements have fallen for the "fourth consecutive month" in July, 9.1% below last year's level (Brisbane Times, August 2012).
• "Queensland's unemployment rate rose 0.5% to 5.8% in July, the highest rate since August last year" (Courier Mail, p5, August 2012).
• In relation to recent public servant job cuts: "...a total of 20,000 public servants [will] be axed" - Treasurer Tim Nicholls (The Northern Daily Leader, p9, 2012).

Mining Bust

• The mining sector is currently “suffering depressed prices, an oversupplied market and poor returns on investment…which could push mining companies to bust.” – Ian Runge, mining economist (UQ News, May 2012).
• According to Deloitte Access Economics, Australia’s “mining investment boom” won’t last for more than another two years, slowing more sharply than expected, as “the current spike in investment is due to decisions taken a while back”, while few ‘mega-projects’ are being approved today (The Age, July 2012).
• Several Australian mining projects are currently on hold or cancelled as the price and demand of iron-ore, aluminium, nickel, and other commodities, have hit record lows (The Wall Street Journal, August 2012).

Economy crash

• Economist Frank Gelber predicts that Brisbane will hit a recession once the resources boom has runs its course, as too many of our investments are geared towards minerals, and we’ve structured our cities and our industries around servicing them (Scalora for Brisbane Business News, September 2011).
• There are 177 resource company headquarters in Brisbane, with more to follow as Brisbane hopes to become a "global centre for resource industry technology and services...we are on the cusp of a resource-based economic transformation" - Lord Mayor Graham Quirk (AAP General News Wire, Feb 2012).
• The Lord Mayor is hoping an extra 343,000 workers will move to Brisbane for this "resources boom" (AAP General News Wire, Feb 2012).  
• Queensland is already $65 billion dollars in debt, and will increase to $100 billion by 2018/19 if the "government doesn't take drastic action" (news.com.au, August 2012)

Selling QLD assets

• Federal treasurer Peter Costello insists that "privatisation [is] the only way to reign in state debt", and Queensland treasurer Tim Nicholls has admitted that the idea was "on the menu for consideration" (Courier Mail, June 2012).
• In 2010 Queensland sold $15 billion worth of assets in the Port of Brisbane, Forestry Plantations Queensland, Queensland Motorways Limited, Abbot Point Coal Terminal and QR National, with the government still owning more than $200 billion in assets. (Brisbane Times, November 2010; Queensland Government, 2010).
• The government has also sold off previous assets such as QANTAS and Brisbane Airport (Queensland Government, 2010).

Maybe we should quit architecture and become economists!

References

AAP General News Wire. 2012. QLD: Plan aims to double Brisbane economy. February 14, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://search.proquest.com.ezp01.library.qut.edu.au/docview/921242607/abstract 

The Age. 2012. Mining boom forecast to end in two years. July 23, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://www.theage.com.au/business/mining-boom-forecast-to-end-in-two-years-20120722-22ibe.html

Brisbane Business News. 2012. Recession likely after mining bust. September, 2011. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://www.brisbanebusinessnews.com.au/process/myviews/bbn_article.html?articleId=2337

Brisbane Times. 2012. Job ad retreat signals rising jobless rate. August 6, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/the-economy/job-ad-retreat-signals-rising-jobless-rate-20120806-23p2a.html

Courier Mail. 2012. Unemployment rates on the rise. August 11, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://search.proquest.com.ezp01.library.qut.edu.au/docview/1032899709/abstract

Courier Mail. 2012. Asset sales the only answer to Queensland’s debt, say Peter Costello. June 16, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/asset-sales-the-only-answer-costello/story-e6freon6-1226397178883

news.com.au. 2012. LNP misleading Qld on debt: opposition. August 21, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/national/qld-mps-apologise-for-misrepresenting-debt/story-e6frfku9-1226454764304

The Northern Daily Leader. 2012. BRISBANE: Another 200 Queensland public servant jobs. August 10, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://search.proquest.com.ezp01.library.qut.edu.au/docview/1032804073/abstract

Queensland Government. 2010. Queensland assets sales: the myths vs the facts. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://www.brisbane.apana.org.au/~cpds/Documents/External/AssetSalesMythsFacts.pdf

UQ News. 2012. Economics expert warns boom now a bust for the Australian mining sector. 25 May, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/economics-expert-warns-boom-now-a-bust-for-the-australian-mining-sector

The Wall Street Journal. 2012. Australia’s Resource Boom Losing Steam. August 21, 2012. Accessed 21/8/2012, from http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2012/08/21/australias-resource-boom-is-losing-steam/